Burden of disease attributable to tobacco use in Paraguay, and potential health and financial impact of increasing prices through taxing

Abstract

Objectives. To consider the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption in Paraguay and to evaluate the potential economic and health effect of price increase through taxes. Materials and Methods. A Monte Carlo simulation model was designed incorporating natural history, costs, and quality of life of diseases associated to smoking for 2015. Also, several scenarios were considered for the impact of tax raises on the prevalence of smoking and fiscal collection. Results. In Paraguay, 3,354 people die every year as a consequence of smoking. Nineteen percent of deaths are due to cardiac ischemia, 15% due to stroke. 77% of deaths due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and 83% of lung cancer can be attributed to smoking. These diseases in Paraguay represent an annual direct medical cost of more than 1.5 trillion PYG, while the tax collection from cigarette sales barely covers 20% of this expense. A 50% increase in the price of cigarettes via taxes could avoid 2507 deaths in ten years and generate resources by 2.4 trillion in savings in health expenses and tax of collection. Conclusions. The cost and the burden of disease associated to tobacco consumption is high in the health system in Paraguay. An increase in cigarette price through taxes could have significant health benefits and could offset health costs in part.