Suggestions for chikungunya control based on a sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model
Keywords:Chikungunya virus infection, Communicable disease control, Decision support techniques
AbstractChikungunya fever seriously affects peoples’ health and causes chronic joint pain and even disability. Chikungunya is transmitted by the bite of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Outbreaks have been reported in throughout the world, including Latin America. Mathematical modeling studies of these outbreaks have calculated the values of various epidemiological parameters. Based on them, a mathematical model was prepared to simulate a chikungunya outbreak in a local population, which was transmitted from an neighboring infected population. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis revealed that the mosquito-to-human and human-to-mosquito transmission rates are the variables with the highest correlation with the number infected people, which were greatest at 60 days after the first case in the neighboring population. Therefore, it is recommended to take this into consideration when planning policies to control such variables as isolation of infected people, distribution of mosquito netting and repellents, fumigation, among others.
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How to Cite
Requena D, Segovia-Juárez JL. Suggestions for chikungunya control based on a sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model. Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica [nternet]. 2016 Mar. 23 [cited 2023 Jun. 4];33(1):154-61. vailable from: https://rpmesp.ins.gob.pe/index.php/rpmesp/article/view/2017