La prueba de significancia de la hipótesis nula y la dicotomización del valor p: Errare Humanum Est

Edward Mezones-Holguin; Ali Al-kassab-Córdova; Percy Soto-Becerra; Sonia Hernández-Díaz; Jay S. Kaufman

doi:10.17843/rpmesp.2024.414.14285

Autores/as

Edward Mezones-Holguin Centro de Excelencia en Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales en Salud, Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola, Lima, Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7168-8613
Ali Al-kassab-Córdova Centro de Excelencia en Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales en Salud, Universidad San Ignacio de Loyola, Lima, Perú. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3718-5857
Percy Soto-Becerra Vicerrectorado de Investigación, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Perú https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5332-9254
Sonia Hernández-Díaz Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, EE.UU. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1458-7642
Jay S. Kaufman Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, & Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1606-401X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17843/rpmesp.2024.414.14285

Palabras clave:

Análisis Estadístico, Pruebas de Hipótesis, Bioestadística, Epidemiología y Bioestadística, estadística & datos numéricos

Resumen

La toma de decisiones en salud es compleja y requiere informarse en la mejor evidencia científica. En este proceso, la información generada a partir del análisis estadístico de los datos es crucial, el cual puede desarrollarse desde las perspectivas frecuentista o bayesiana. En la arena frecuentista, la prueba de significancia de la hipótesis nula (PSHN) y el valor p es una de las técnicas de mayor uso en diferentes disciplinas. No obstante, la PSHN desde la academia ha sido sometida a una serie de cuestionamientos desde diversas aristas, lo cual ha conllevado a situarla como una de las causantes de la denominada crisis de replicabilidad en la ciencia. En este artículo de revisión, realizamos un breve recuento histórico sobre su desarrollo, resumimos los métodos subyacentes, describimos algunas controversias y limitaciones, abordamos el mal uso y mala interpretación, para finalmente dar algunos alcances y reflexiones en el contexto de la investigación biomédica.

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