Estimation and analysis of HIV incidence in the adult population in Peru: results of the application of the MoT mathematic model

Authors

  • Jorge O. Alarcón Sección de Epidemiología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical “Daniel A. Carrión”; Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Médico epidemiólogo.
  • Mónica Pun Dirección General de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud. Lima, Perú. Médico epidemiólogo.
  • César Gutiérrez Sección de Epidemiología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical “Daniel A. Carrión”; Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Médico epidemiólogo.
  • Álvaro Whittembury Sección de Epidemiología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical “Daniel A. Carrión”; Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Médico epidemiólogo.
  • Romina Tejada Sección de Epidemiología, Instituto de Medicina Tropical “Daniel A. Carrión”; Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. médico cirujano.
  • Luis Suárez Dirección General de Epidemiología, Ministerio de Salud. Lima, Perú. Médico epidemiólogo.
  • Gustavo Rosell Dirección Regional de Salud San Martín. San Martín, Perú. médico cirujano.
  • Annick Bórquez Imperial College London. Londres, Reino Unido. médico epidemiólogo especialista en Microbiología.
  • Paloma Cuchi Programa Conjunto de las Naciones Unidas sobre el VIH/SIDA (ONUSIDA). Ginebra, Suiza. Médico epidemiólogo.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17843/rpmesp.2012.294.388

Keywords:

HIV, Mathematical models, Estimation techniques, Incidence

Abstract

Objectives. To estimate HIV incidence in the adult population of Peru, 2010, and analyze its distribution based on risk behavior. Materials and methods. The UNAIDS model was applied based on the modes of transmission (MoT). The information was obtained from the review detailed in 59 documents (1984 – 2008). National databases were also analyzed to obtain specific data. Final selection of data was validated by the technical group and a group of experts. After consultation with experts, values were corrected and an uncertainty analysis was conducted. The model was adjusted to 2009 national prevalence (0.45%). Results. Incidence estimated for 2010 was 0.03%, (4346 new infections). 84% of new infections concentrate on higher risk groups: men who have sex with men (55%) and people who have casual sex with heterosexuals (6.2%). The remaining 16% corresponds to low-risk heterosexual population. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 43% of new cases, 18% of which corresponds to female partners of high risk individuals. Only 2.2% of cases is related to female sexual work and 1.0% to injection drug users. Conclusions. The model provides an estimation of the incidence and its distribution among risk groups according to the mode of transmission, consistent with the HIV case reporting. The model creates scenarios to help decision making and policy formulation, as well as surveillance and planning of prevention and control.

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Published

2014-02-05

Issue

Section

Research Articles

How to Cite

1.
Alarcón JO, Pun M, Gutiérrez C, Whittembury Álvaro, Tejada R, Suárez L, et al. Estimation and analysis of HIV incidence in the adult population in Peru: results of the application of the MoT mathematic model. Rev Peru Med Exp Salud Publica [Internet]. 2014 Feb. 5 [cited 2024 Jun. 23];29(4). Available from: https://rpmesp.ins.gob.pe/index.php/rpmesp/article/view/388

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